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An introductory perspective on student dropout

Intro

Student "dropout" is the negative way of referring to the unsuccessful departure of students; while "persistence" is a positive way (although "failure to leave" would invert the judgement again). "Retention" is the positive but institution-centered phrase, while "attrition" is the negative.

Note how all of these carry a judgement ("spin"). People just don't seem willing to adopt a non-judgemental attitude, to accept that leaving without a certificate is not only a possible, but like death, a natural occurrence.

Defining dropout

• The strictest definition I can think of is (for a 4 year degree HEI) that a dropout is anyone who hasn't graduated from the same HEI 4 years after first entering. (I'm a dropout under that definition.)
• HESA defines dropout as the percentage of all first year first degree entrants who are no longer in HE a year later.
• A mildly liberal definition would be failing to graduate within (say) 10 years. This is success as to the end, if inefficient as to time.
• A more radical definition would address two issues.
  • There have been arguments that some HE damages the mental health of its students. Success, then, should include not just an educational certificate, but retaining or enhancing one's mental health, and in general intellectual well being.
  • It is apparent to many people that important parts of the benefit of HE is not tested by exams, nor expressed by the certificate (except perhaps by the name of the institution). One implication of this is that leaving without a degree does not mean that you are leaving without important benefits.

• Most such definitions give the annual dropout rate, or the rate of those failing or leaving a given module. That is relevant to individual course designers. However from a student / applicant perspective, the relevant rate is surely the chance of leaving with a degree. Since most courses are 3 years, you need to multiply most stated dropout rates by about 3. On these views, "dropout" should be defined as those who leave with zero or negative benefit, while success is gaining a real benefit rather than defining it as collecting a certificate in a fixed time like frequent flyer miles.

Basic comparative positions

• Dropout (retention) rates. According to Tinto (1982), dropout rates in USA HE have averaged a steady 45% over the last century (defined as those who have not graduated 4 years after first enrolment), despite huge changes in participation rates and other major aspects of HE. (Since then they have increased to about 49%.)

  In 1997 England, using another of the possible definitions, had a dropout rate of 15.8% while Scotland had 16.1%. I take it then that Scotland is very similar, but perhaps slightly worse, than the UK in general. In 1997 at UoG the dropout rate was about 13% and the UK rate 16% on the same definition and year according to BBC tables. So I'll take it that UoG has (only) a slightly easier retention job than the UK or Scottish average.

  The 2002-3 tables by HESA, if I'm reading them right, define dropout as the percentage of all first year first degree entrants who are no longer in HE a year later. The overall UK rate is 15.4%; the rate in Scotland is 10.7%; this university's rate is 9.2%. The range in dropout rates is 1%-36%. (HESA tables)

  Country Average rate Japan 11% UK 18% Germany 28% USA 37% France 45%

  These dropout figures, quoted in a news article, are for 1996-8 and derive from an OECD (2000) report. The funding councils also argue that while the numbers of students entering higher education has doubled in the past 10 years, the drop-out rate has only risen by 2% -- from 16% to the current 18%.

  In 2002 the UK rate was 18% on average with a range of 1-36% for different HEIs. Thus while rates vary greatly between countries, they also vary even more within a country i.e. different HEIs face quite different dropout rates. They also vary a lot within an HEI, most occurring in the first year: Randy mentioned about 25% currently drop out in the first year alone in the USA.

• Overall participation.

  Country 1991 2001 UK 19 29 USA 30 39

  The table shows the overall participation defined as the % of the population aged 25-35 with an HE qualification, according to the OECD's latest report (OECD, 2003).

  Defining participation differently as going directly from school into FE or HE: England had a rate of 12%?? until 1990, currently has participation 25-35%, but the target is 35-45% (see this HEFCE news). Scotland now has a participation rate of 52% (see this Scottish Executive bulletin), or 46% a few years ago (see this BBC news item). Another way of putting it (in that last news item) is that in the period 1982-1998 the number of students in Scottish HE nearly doubled.

  But a useful table combining longer historical comparisons with high/low socio-economic groups is to be found in Robertson & Hillman (1997), section 1, table 1.1. It shows the percentge of the age 18+ cohort entering HE in a given year. API means Age Participation Index. "High" means socio-economic groups I, II, IIIn; "low" means groups IIIm, IV, V.

  Participation by year and socio-economic group. Redrawn from Robertson & Hillman (1997)
  Group	1940	1950	1960	1970	1980	1985	1990	1995
  High	8.4	18.5	26.7	32.4	33.1	35.2	36.7	45.0
  Low	1.5	2.7	3.6	5.1	6.5	8.3	10.3	15.1
  API (UK)	1.8	3.4	5.4	8.4	12.4	13.7	19.3	32.0

• Unequal participation. "Non-traditional students" i.e. from low socio-economic category families, with lower pre-HE qualifications, parents who didn't do HE, schools that send few to HE, etc. "Widening participation" means taking more of these, and so reducing the differences in participation rate between different social groups e.g. the current working class 34% participation rate vs. the 64% middle class participation rate (see report on Scottish minister talk) in Scotland, or the class differences shown in the table above for the UK. These students have different needs; change may be required to address them. This is recently on the government agenda in the UK; the US has been addressing them for somewhat longer. Dropout rates for mature students are (or have been) about double that for others.

What is a good dropout rate?

A hospital on the whole thinks that the shorter the stay of a patient, the more successful the hospital is (and dropouts stay a shorter time than those who graduate. Did they get all they needed in that time?). Cf. the point made above on other values for HE than getting a degree certificate. This point is given real educational force by a course in entrepreneurship where those "dropping out" and not getting the certificate were far more likely than completers to start up a business of their own. Source: "ECW2 evaluation report 2005" esp. pp.60-64, available on request via celt.glam.ac.uk.

Many policies assume that dropout is bad, and a zero dropout rate is the right aspiration. That may be true from the viewpoint of maximising an organisation's income; but it is not true of every learner, and not even true of every university course.

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